現金流折現（DCF）計算器

分類： Uncategorized
- August 31, 2026
| |

Estimate the intrinsic value of a stock based on projected future cash flows discounted to their present value

Company Information

Valuation Inputs

$
Latest annual free cash flow
Total number of shares
$
For comparison purposes

Growth Assumptions

years
Initial high growth stage
%
Year-over-year growth during high growth period
years
Transition to terminal growth
%
Long-term sustainable growth rate

Discount Rate

%
Required rate of return
%
%
%
%

Valuation Results

Intrinsic Value Per Share
$215.37
Estimated fair value based on discounted cash flows
現價
$150.00
內在價值
$215.37
With Margin of Safety
$161.53
Upside Potential
43.6%
Potential upside from current price
Enterprise Value
$215.37B
Total value of the business
Terminal Value
$318.2B
Value of all cash flows beyond forecast period
Discount Rate (WACC)
10.0%
Applied to discount future cash flows
Terminal Value %
73.8%
Portion of value from terminal value

Projected Cash Flows

Value Breakdown

Sensitivity Analysis

The table below shows how the estimated intrinsic value changes based on different combinations of discount rates and terminal growth rates.

內在價值 Discount Rate
Terminal Growth 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0%

Sensitivity Analysis Chart

DCF Calculation Breakdown

年 Projected FCF 增長率 Discount Factor Present Value
Terminal Value $2,591M 2.5% 0.3855 $159.1B
Sum of Present Values $215.4B
Net Cash/(Debt) $0.0B
Equity Value $215.4B
已發行股數 1.0B
Intrinsic Value Per Share $215.37

Valuation Analysis

Valuation Assessment

Based on the DCF analysis, the stock appears to be undervalued by 43.6% compared to the current market price. This suggests potential for capital appreciation if the market eventually recognizes the company's intrinsic value.

Sensitivity Analysis

The intrinsic value is moderately sensitive to changes in the discount rate and terminal growth rate. Even with more conservative assumptions (discount rate of 12% and terminal growth of 1.5%), the stock still appears undervalued.

風險評估

73.8% of the estimated value comes from the terminal value, indicating moderate to high uncertainty in the valuation. Consider the margin of safety price of $161.53 as a more conservative entry point.

Investment Perspective

The DCF valuation suggests a buy opportunity at the current price. However, investors should also consider qualitative factors such as competitive position, management quality, and industry trends that may not be fully captured in this quantitative analysis.

Understanding DCF Valuation

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis is a valuation method used to estimate the intrinsic value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows, discounted to reflect their present value.

Key Components of DCF

  • Free Cash Flow (FCF): Cash generated by the business after accounting for operating expenses and capital expenditures
  • Growth Rate: Expected annual growth of cash flows during the forecast period
  • Discount Rate: Rate used to discount future cash flows to present value, typically using WACC or a risk-adjusted required return
  • Terminal Value: The value of all cash flows beyond the explicit forecast period
  • 安全邊際： A discount applied to the estimated intrinsic value to account for valuation uncertainties

Interpreting DCF Results

  • Undervalued (IV > Market Price): The stock may be considered for purchase as it trades below estimated intrinsic value
  • Fairly Valued (IV ≈ Market Price): The stock is trading close to its estimated intrinsic value
  • Overvalued (IV < Market Price): The stock may be considered expensive relative to its estimated intrinsic value
  • High Terminal Value %: Greater dependence on uncertain long-term projections
  • Sensitivity Analysis: Shows how changes in key assumptions impact the valuation

DCF Calculation Method

Present Value of Cash Flows
PV = CF₁/(1+r)¹ + CF₂/(1+r)² + ... + CFₙ/(1+r)ⁿ
Terminal Value (Perpetuity Growth)
TV = CFₙ₊₁/(r-g) = CFₙ×(1+g)/(r-g)
WACC Calculation
WACC = E/(D+E)×Rₑ + D/(D+E)×Rᵈ×(1-T)
Intrinsic Value Per Share
IV = (PV of FCF + Terminal Value + Net Cash) / Shares Outstanding

Limitations of DCF Valuation

While DCF is a powerful valuation method, it has several important limitations:

  • Forecasting Uncertainty: Projections far into the future are inherently uncertain
  • Terminal Value Sensitivity: Small changes in terminal growth rate can significantly impact the valuation
  • Discount Rate Subjectivity: The choice of discount rate involves judgment and can dramatically affect results
  • Cash Flow Stability: DCF works best for companies with predictable, stable cash flows
  • Growth Assumptions: Assumes growth rates will behave as projected, which may not be realistic

For best results, use DCF in combination with other valuation methods and qualitative business analysis.

本工具計算什麼

將預期未來現金流折算為現值。

公式
DCF = Σ CFₜ ÷（1 + r）ᵗ，另加終值 CF·(1+g) ÷（r − g）
計算示例
三年後收取 100 港元，以 8% 折現，現值為 100 ÷ 1.08³ ≈ 79.38 港元。
何時使用
按資產實際能產生的現金估值，而非按他人願付的價格。
常見錯誤
終值往往主導整個結果，卻是最不可靠的輸入。r 或 g 的微小改動足以令估值大幅偏離。